Neil's Nuggets - November 24, 2025
Looking at the current standings and predicting who will make the playoffs and who won't. I don't look at points alone, I look at another number that tells me a lot about a team's chances of making the playoffs, even though it's not even Thanksgiving yet.
Neil Smith
Author
published
Today, when we look at the standings, five teams are already -10 or worse in Goal Differential. What are the chances any of these five teams will qualify for this year's playoffs? We looked back over the last four seasons on exactly this date to see how many double-digit minus teams in goal differential ended up making the postseason.
November 24, 2024: 9 teams, only 3 made it
November 24, 2023: 8 teams, only 1 made it
November 24, 2022: 10 teams, none made it
November 24, 2021: 9 teams, none made it
Conclusion:
In the previous 4 seasons, out of 36 teams that were -10 or worse on this date, only 4 made it.
So, if your team is -10 or worse right now, you have an 11% chance of making the playoffs.
Neil Smith
Author
Related Posts
SMITH'S PIX - DECEMBER 7, 2025
Yesterday's results were 2-3-0, bringing us to 144-91-33. I'm going all in today and forecasting all eight games.
Smith's Pix - December 6, 2025
The hibernation for the week has passed with a solid 3-1-1 Friday to move the season mark 142-88-33. Here's a handful to mull over for Saturday.
Smith's Pix - December 5, 2025
Hopefully last night's results were Rock Bottom for Smith's Pix!! A stunning 0-4-1 shellacking of the old GM's predictions. Now entering today's games at 139-87-32, here's my humbling predictions for tonight.